Data sources and handling
Information for all assessed animal species was downloaded from the Red List version 2023.1 [1], including their taxonomic classification, Red List category of extinction risk, ecosystem type (terrestrial, freshwater and/or marine), threats, conservation actions in place, global population trend and generation length (the average age of breeding individuals, in years), along with their range maps. Extinct species, taxa belonging to groups that were not comprehensively assessed (i.e., for which less than 80% of the species have Red List assessments), and subspecies and subpopulations were excluded from analyses. The resulting data included 7,983 amphibians, 11,038 birds, 1,240 cartilaginous fish, 750 cephalopods, 6,223 dragonflies and damselflies, 80 hagfish, 4 horseshoe crabs, 38 lampreys, 8 lobe-finned fish, 5,895 mammals, 10,222 reptiles, 14,347 freshwater fish, 2,886 selected crustacea, 687 selected gastropods, 4,988 selected marine fish and 828 warm-water reef-building corals (see S1 Text for classification of selected groups).
Species’ range size (in km2) was calculated by summing the total area of their range coded as Extant, Probably Extant or Possibly Extinct (presence), Native, Reintroduced or Assisted Colonization (origin) and Resident or Breeding (seasonality) codes, in cylindrical equal area projection. For migratory species with breeding ranges, their range size reflected their breeding (or where applicable breeding and resident) range; non-breeding ranges were excluded to avoid over-inflation of range size estimates. The area of species’ mapped range was used rather than population size, as it was reported for a much greater proportion of species, with range having been shown to be correlated with (and often used as a proxy for) population size [17]. Generation lengths were quantified in a range of formats; where available, the best estimate was used, while mean values were used if a range was given, with non-numeric values reviewed and converted to numerals accordingly. Just under half of mammals did not contain information about their generation length, so this was supplemented using data from Pacifici and colleagues [30].
Threat and action types reported in tabular form were aggregated respectively to simplify interpretation of analyses by combining similar concepts (see S2 and S3 Texts, respectively, for details). Future threats and those coded by Red List assessors as having negligible impact were excluded. This left the following threats: habitat loss and degradation, hunting or fishing, problematic or invasive species or diseases, pollution and climate change; and actions: potential occurrence in protected areas, area management plan, control of invasive or problematic species or diseases, species management, reintroduction or translocation, awareness and education, international legislation or trade control, captive breeding or monitoring. Whether sites of importance (e.g., Key Biodiversity Areas) have been identified for each species was excluded due to expert assessors’ information suggesting it has been applied inconsistently between groups.
The genuine changes in species’ Red List category we analyzed were based on two sources. The first was data that underpin the Red List Index [1,27], which includes the category change, timing and a text narrative justifying the reason for improvement or deterioration in status (typically threats or actions). This was combined with information on additional genuine changes in the period 2016–2022 recorded by the Red List Unit but that had not yet been published in RLI assessments. For genuine improvements in status, documentation of the reason for the improvement was reviewed against the coded actions in place for each species. If the specific action was not recorded (e.g., some simply referred to “conservation action”), the species’ Red List assessment and “actions in place” text accounts were reviewed to see if these attributed particular actions to improvements in species status. Where this was absent, and for cases where the action described did not fall within the options for actions in place (e.g., livelihoods, economic or other incentives), they were classified as “other action”. When there was no clear indication that the improvement in category was driven by conservation action, or where it was attributed to natural processes (e.g., amelioration of drought, habitat succession following land abandonment, etc.), this was recorded as such.
Information from Green Status of Species assessments (a measure of species recovery) was extracted for the 35 animal species on the Red List with published assessments as of March 2024 (including Trechus terrabravensis and Troides helena, from groups that are not comprehensively assessed). These include estimates of the impact of conservation compared with a counterfactual of no action. This counterfactual is also spatially explicit, examining the impacts of conservation in distinct parts of the species range (spatial units). Within each spatial unit, the species’ current state (Absent, Present, Viable, or Functional) [29] is estimated, as well as the counterfactual state (i.e., the expected current state without conservation action). For each species’ spatial unit, the best estimate for both the current and counterfactual state were extracted, along with documented past and current threats, and past and current conservation actions. Note this also included the action of livelihood, economic and other incentives (as this is a category in the Conservation Actions Needed classification scheme but not the Actions in Place) [18].
Models of improvements in species’ conservation status
Three different indicators were used to investigate which species’ traits, threats and actions are associated with improvements in species’ conservation status, focusing on risk of extinction in the wild. (1) Species global population trend: declining, stable or increasing (excluding those with unknown trends), estimated over a 5-year window around the date of assessment (for all comprehensively assessed species). (2) Net (overall) genuine change in Red List category: species were coded as “uplisted”, “unchanged” or “downlisted” based on whether their most recent assessment category was a deterioration, unchanged, or an improvement compared with their first assessment category (for amphibians, birds and mammals). As before, LC species were excluded due to inconsistencies in reporting for these species. Currently EW species were excluded from the population trend model as they have no population trend in the wild until they are reintroduced (the Red List category model uses their former category so EW species can be included). (3) Prevented declines in species’ state within specific spatial units, coded as a ‘prevented decline’ and otherwise coded as ‘no impact’ based on the changes between the documented current and the counterfactual state (without conservation action) for each spatial unit (species’ spatial units that were classified as “functional” in both current and counterfactual states in the analysis) were excluded as they could not improve. The population trend model included all comprehensively assessed animal groups, the Red List category change model included amphibians, birds and mammals, and the prevented decline in species state model included the 35 animal species with published Green Status of Species assessments. These three indicators were modeled against a range of species traits, threats and actions (see Table 1).
Table 1. Structure of three models of improvement in conservation status against a range of variables related to species traits, threats and conservation actions. The five threats consist of: habitat loss/degradation, hunting/fishing, invasive/problematic species/diseases, pollution or climate change. The seven actions consist of: potential occurrence in protected areas, area management plans, invasive/problematic species control, species management plans, reintroduction/translocation, international legislation/trade control, education/awareness raising.
Species’ range size (log km2) was included as it is a key indicator of extinction risk [17,31], logged given most species have small range sizes (so to normalize the distribution of the data). Species’ ecosystem type (terrestrial, marine or both terrestrial and marine) was included to account for differences in threats and actions between the different realms. Freshwater was treated as part of terrestrial in order to focus on the distinction between land/freshwater and sea, between which the different species’ traits, threats and actions are likely to differ to a higher degree. The other factors included in the model were the presence/absence of the five threats (habitat loss or degradation, hunting or fishing, invasive or problematic species or diseases, climate change and pollution) and seven actions (potential occurrence in protected areas, area management plans, control of invasive or problematic species or diseases, species’ management, reintroduction or translocation, awareness and education, and international legislation or trade control). Monitoring and captive breeding were excluded as the former is not a conservation intervention per se, and the latter does not impact species’ extinction risk in the wild until individuals are introduced (which is documented separately), though of course play key roles in preventing overall species extinction and facilitating reintroduction to the wild.
Species’ current Red List category (for the population trend model) or initial Red List category (for the genuine Red List category changes model) was also included as an ordinal factor, where LC
The population trend and genuine category change models were also run independently for each taxonomic group with sufficient data, and for species traits. This also included LC species as this information should be reported for LC species similarly to other threat levels. Logged generation length (another important indicator of extinction risk [17], logged given most species have short generation times) was only included for birds, mammals, trait-only and prevented declines in species’ state models due to limited data availability.
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